JFC Technical Analysis
Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) closed at 236.60, down by 4.21 percent, as of 12PM GMT+8 of August 6, 2019. JFC is already down by 8.29 percent WTD and down by 18.92 percent YTD.
Let me challenge you if your mentor says that it’s okay to buy a stock for as long as it’s trading below its Buy Below Price.
Let’s say you bought JFC’s dip last July 24th. Can you truly say that it was okay that you bought JFC just because it was trading below your mentor’s Buy Below Price or you would have not topped up had you known that what was cheap could get cheaper, especially when there are no signs of a bullish reversal?
Think about it now if your current mentor, whose best weapon is the averaging method and a Buy Below Price, is logical or just a smooth-operator.
Let’s go back to my technical analysis of JFC.
JFC already broke below its previous support at 240. That price point now acts as its immediate resistance. The immediate support is at 220, which is a precursor to 200 and 180.
For the past 7 trading days, foreign investors were consistently registering a daily Net Foreign Buying stance on JFC. As of the first half of trading today, they already registered a relatively huge Net Foreign Selling worth P101 million.
My 10SMACD combo remains invalid. I see no signs of a formation of a bullish convergence between the MACD and the signal line. The three simple moving averages I’m using are in a perfect bearish alignment, too. JFC has lots of resistances to break before it will regain its bullish stance in the long-term scale on the daily chart.
RSI is inching closer to the classical oversold level. But, hey, RSI at 20 is not an automatic buy signal. Remember, what’s cheap now could get cheaper later.
JFC’s risk level is already high with its historical volatility of 80 percent.
The downward momentum is still very strong as shown by the increasing gap between the -DMI and +DMI and the increasing ADX score in favor of the downward force. I see no signs of a formation of a bullish convergence between the -DMI and +DMI.
All signals are in transit to the southward direction. Looks like they’re going on vacation altogether, eh?
Last Price: 236.60
Most Traded: 239 – 237
Most Voluminous: 237.4 – 237
JFC’s dominant range is between 237 and 240. But take note that JFC is already at 236.80. Will it adjust the dominant range from 236 to 240? I’m not Nostradamus so don’t force me to guess. Let’s monitor and adjust our sentiment and plans according to the prevailing data.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment of JFC as of Aug-06-2019 at 12:00PM, with a last price of 236.600.
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 238.5516
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 238.9705
51 out of 92 participants or 55.43% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 92 participants or 9.78% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
This bearish true market sentiment supports my bearish overall sentiment for JFC.
I suppose that these 51 confident buyers out of the 92 participating brokers are the followers of mentors whose silver bullet in long-term investing is cost-averaging and a Buy Below Price coupled by the whispers of their partner broker.
Equilyst Analytics has partnered with First Metro Securities but 100 percent of my calls and methodologies are mine.
Equilyst Analytics was, is, and will always be an independent stock market consultancy firm.
As far as how I guide and teach the subscribers of Equilyst Analytics and the attendees of The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market, we do better than cost-averagers and Buy Below Price-dependents.
We have data-driven ways to check if the trend is more likely to continue.
If your JFC is already trading below your trailing stop loss, what else are you waiting for? Jose Mari Chan’s Christmas songs on the first day of September? Follow your trailing stop loss.
You have a real problem if your response to my question is, “What’s a trailing stop loss?”
Attend my The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market seminar. Lesson number 6 is about learning how to sell more logically and less emotionally. I’ll discuss the trailing stop loss then.
If you don’t have JFC but you’re itching to press the buy button, do yourself a favor by postponing that silliness. There are no confirmed buy signals yet. The downtrend is still more likely to continue. There are no signs of a bullish reversal.
Do you know how to find signs of a bullish reversal? Do you know if the downtrend momentum is weakening? Those are the things that I teach in lessons number 2 to 4 in The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market seminar.
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