APL Technical Analysis: Buy on Breakout or Wait for a Pullback?hi

Apollo Global Capital Technical Analysis

Since March 2021, Apollo Global Capital (APL) has been moving sideways between the immediate support at ₱0.163 and the immediate resistance at ₱0.237. Finally, on May 7, 2021, it closed at ₱0.189, down by 1.05 percent with a total turnover value of nearly P15 million. The size of the foreign investors’ participation is negligible or very insignificant, so I’m not going to mention their figures.

In this write-up, I’ll help you identify if there’s a confirmed buy signal for APL by using my Evergreen Strategy 2.0.

Firstly, APL’s last price is below its 10-day simple moving average (SMA), which is bearish.

Secondly, its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) moves below the signal line, which is bearish, too.

Thirdly, the last price of ₱0.189 is lower than DFNN’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of ₱0.1897, which is bearish again.

Fourthly, the last volume bar is lower than 50 percent of APL’s 10-day volume average. But, again, that’s in favor of the bears.

Fifthly, the Dominant Range Index (DRI) of APL is bullish. Even so, the first four parameters are all bearish. So, there’s no chance for APL to get a confirmed buy signal following the parameters set in my Evergreen Strategy 2.0. But that’s as of Friday’s data only. Let’s see on Monday. Of course, sentiment is subject to change when data change.

Lastly, the Market Sentiment Index is bullish. I have the same comments like the one I wrote for the fifth parameter.

Dominant Range Index

Dominant Range Index: Bullish
Last Price: ₱0.189
Intraday Low: ₱0.1880
Intraday High: ₱0.1920
VWAP: ₱0.190
Dominant Range: ₱0.189 – ₱0.191

Market Sentiment Index

Market Sentiment Index: BULLISH
21 of the 36 participating brokers, or 58.33% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
19 of the 36 participating brokers, or 52.78% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
36 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱0.18983
36 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱0.18955
13 out of 36 participants, or 36.11% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
7 out of 36 participants, or 19.44% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

Synthesis

My Evergreen Strategy 2.0 does not issue a confirmed buy signal for Apollo Global Capital (APL) as of the end of trading on May 7, 2021, Friday.

If you already have a position on APL, check if your trailing stop is still intact. If it’s intact, you have a logical reason to hold your position. I don’t see the need to reduce the percentage of risk on your trailing stop yet because its EOD Dominant Range Index and Market Sentiment Index are both bullish. However, do not top up because there’s no confirmed buy signal. Don’t waste your buying power.

If you plan to enter a new position, it’s best to wait for my Evergreen Strategy 2.0 to raise a confirmed buy signal for APL. But by the looks of it, even if APL will get a confirmed buy signal once it breaks above the 10-SMA, that’ll be closer to the immediate resistance than the immediate support already. This is because I’m concerned about your reward-to-risk ratio by that time. Anyway, the acceptance of the reward-to-risk ratio is always subjective, so it’s up to you. You’ll understand my perspective once you’re done studying the course manual of my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market 2.0.

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Jaycee De Guzman

Founder and CEO at Equilyst Analytics

Experience the expertise of Jaycee De Guzman, the brain of Equilyst Analytics, renowned for his unique data analysis. He is a computer scientist and a self-taught digital marketing strategist and agriculturist. Since Equilyst Analytics’ founding in 2012, over 10,000 local and foreign clients have consulted with Jaycee de Guzman on crypto and stock investments.

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