Prime Orion Philippines (POPI) has just been wobbling in a sideways direction since it hit its all-time high of 4.10 last 26 February 2018. Why did POPI fail to continue its ascent past the 4.10-mark? Look at the volume. Did you notice how the volume has become flimsy after it hit 4.10? Do not forget the price-volume correlation. I always quote this classic correlation in my stock analysis. You must have memorized this thought by now, don’t you?
POPI’s resistance is near 3.84 and resistance is near 2.95, which is in confluence with the 50 percent of the Down Fibonacci.
On the RSI Monthly and Weekly, POPI is very closed to entering the confirmed bullish channel. POPI is far from being oversold based on Stochastic Daily, Weekly, and Monthly.
I see a buy signal today that is not for the faint of heart. Today’s closing price is above the 10SMA and MACD has already crossed above the signal line. If you’ve been following my write-ups for a while now, I’m sure you are already familiar how I use 10SMA and MACD to catch buy signals.
That’s it for the technicals of POPI. Subscribe to our Daily Stock Analysis or Top 5 Gainers and Top 5 Losers Analysis services so you will get the daily stock analyses that include fundamental analysis. Check both services. There are samples on both pages.
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As of April 13, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume is 784.06% of the previous trading day. What’s bullish for me, based on this chart below, is that today’s volume crossed POPI’s 30-day volume average.
Remember these 4 equations below. This is the price-volume correlation I mentioned above. Memorize these four. A day will come that I won’t copy and paste these each time I write a post.
- bullish price + high volume = high sustainability (current price trend)
- bullish price + low volume = low sustainability (current price trend)
- bearish price + high volume = high sustainability (current price trend)
- bearish price + low volume = low sustainability (current price trend)
The price at 3.38 may either act as the support or resistance by the next trading day. POPI opened at 3.22 and closed at 3.38 today.
Did you already subscribe to our Daily Stock Analysis and Private Clients Forum? Okay, great! Listen to this. I strongly suggest that you request for your stock’s Price-Volume Distribution chart and our interpretation of it in our Private Clients Forum, especially during recess. This is important so you can check if your trade setup is still valid. It’s an opportunity to calibrate it, especially if you have a plan to trade that stock in the afternoon. I am active in our Private Clients Forum.
Participants with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Apr-13-2018 at 03:30PM:
- 11 out of 50 participants or 22.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 15 out of 50 participants or 30.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 3.3176
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 3.3200
The Top 10 Players’ common denominator is at 3.32. I check the Top 10 Players chart of the stocks that I trade because it gives me an idea of the “psychological average price” of the top 10 players.
So what if I get an idea of the psychological average price of the 10 biggest players of a stock?
It’s important for me because if I know your average price, I kind of get an idea up to what price you’re willing to hold your position when the price goes down.
But how do I exactly take advantage of this tool?
I’ll tell you further. Based on POPI’s EOD Top 10 Players chart, the buying and selling averages of the top 10 players are at 3.32. In my mind, 3.32 is their “average price.” Now, let’s say all top 10 players have a risk tolerance of 5 percent. What’s 5 percent below their “average price?” It’s 3.15.
So, here’s how I process it in my mind: “If these top 10 players’ average price is at 3.32 and if they all have a risk tolerance of 5 percent, there’s a chance for these big players to cut their loss at or near 3.15. Should the price decide to go south, let me seek validation if they will, indeed, do some significant selling activities at or near 3.15.”
Understand that the “collective risk tolerance” of the top 10 players is only a variable I’ve set.
What I’ve told you above is just one of the many ways of how I interpret the results of the Top 10 Players chart.
I understand I have a lot to discuss because I create my own tools and I am not a fan of relying that much on the classical tools that were invented before I was born. Well, that explains why “trade independently” is part of the slogan of the financial consultancy department of Equilyst Analytics, Inc.
Would you like to continue to chat with me regarding my personal strategies and proprietary tools? Subscribe to the Private Clients Forum.
On a 30-day trading period, POPI is on a Net Foreign Selling worth PHP43,810.00.
Did you subscribe to our Stock Ranking System? Then you can rank all stocks and see which ones got the biggest Net Foreign Buying and Net Foreign Selling. You can also see the historical Foreign Fund Flow of all stocks listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange in our Stock Ranking System in a form of a chart.
Most brokers will only show you the end-of-day foreign transactions but not the historical Foreign Fund Flow of the stocks.
POPI has a moderate risk level. I advise beginners to focus on low- to moderate-risk stocks. But how will you know the risk level of the stocks? You can check that on our Stock Ranking System also. In fact, you can rank all stocks according to risk level. You won’t find this Risk Level chart in any broker in the Philippines. This is one of m proprietary charts.
Yesterday, I posted on my Facebook Page that I’ve finished coding my proprietary price forecaster tool by applying the empirical rule to a statistical data set. Below, I’ve decided to use the 21-day period as the timeframe so that the statistical volatility I will get reflects the most recent development that has happened to the stock for the past month. I could have chosen to use a longer time frame, such as 63 days (for 3 months of historical data) or 378 days (for 6 months of historical data) so that the statistical volatility will be more stable but I’m afraid it doesn’t reflect the most recent developments on the stock. There’s a trade-off.
If you are one of our clients at Equilyst Analytics, you may start posting your request for the price forecast of your stocks in our Private Clients Forum this weekend. Although our business hours are only during weekdays, I can set aside an hour this weekend so I can answer your requests for your stocks’ price forecast.
That’s all about POPI today. I hope I was able to help you not only through my analysis of this stock but also through my explanation on why I have these proprietary tools and how they help me and my clients in stock trading and investing.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments section.