Price Action and Structural Context

Manila Electric Company (MER) pushed above its former resistance at ₱596.50, aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and has since shifted into a retest of that level from above. MER closed on February 6, 2026 at ₱599.00, down 0.42%, reflecting hesitation after the recent breakout attempt.

From a short-term perspective, MER remains above its 10-day EMA, although the latest close hovered near this moving average. This narrow buffer increases sensitivity to follow-through selling. From a long-term perspective, the structure remains constructive as price stays well above the 200-day EMA, preserving the broader trend despite near-term pressure.

Immediate support stands at ₱596.50, while immediate resistance sits at ₱617.50. A decisive break below ₱596.50 would shift attention toward ₱580.50, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, as the next downside reference.

Volume Behavior and Participation

Trading activity on February 6 nearly exceeded 100% of MER’s 10-day volume average, signaling deliberate selling rather than routine profit-taking. Elevated turnover alongside a negative close highlights supply pressure near the former resistance zone.

From a short-term trading standpoint, strong volume on a pullback raises the probability of consolidation or deeper retracement. From a long-term investment standpoint, this activity highlights distribution pressure that must stabilize before trend extension regains credibility.

Dominant Range Index Assessment

MER registered a bearish Dominant Range Index despite a close above VWAP. The dominant price range with the highest volume and trade concentration clustered closer to the intraday low, indicating preference for lower price acceptance during the session.

Dominant Range Index: BEARISH
Last Price: 599
Dominant Range: 597 – 600
VWAP: 598.2596

This configuration reflects weakening demand at higher levels and reinforces near-term fatigue around the retested breakout area.

Market Sentiment Index Perspective

MER’s bearish Market Sentiment Index aligns with signals from volume and range behavior, showing restrained conviction rather than coordinated accumulation.

Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
20 of the 41 participating brokers, or 48.78%, posted a positive Aggregate Net Amount
18 of the 41 participating brokers, or 43.90%, posted a higher Per-Broker Buying Average than Per-Broker Selling Average
Aggregate Buying Average: ₱597.75557
Aggregate Selling Average: ₱599.07239
8 of 41 participants, or 19.51%, registered 100% Per-Broker BUYING activity
8 of 41 participants, or 19.51%, registered 100% Per-Broker SELLING activity

For investors tracking broker activity, CLSA Philippines, UBS Securities, and Macquarie ranked as the top participating brokers from February 2 to 6.

Consolidated Outlook and Risk Framework

In the short term, MER sits at a fragile inflection zone. Holding above ₱596.50 remains critical to preserve the breakout attempt. Sustained weakness below this level, especially with elevated volume, would increase downside risk toward ₱580.50.

In the long term, price action above the 200-day EMA continues to support the broader structure. However, meaningful continuation likely requires easing supply pressure and firmer broker-level demand. Until participation improves, upside attempts may face resistance and extended consolidation.

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