Xurpas, Inc. (X) closed as of 12 noon of May 15, 2019 at 1.04-apiece, up by 11.83% from the previous trading day’s closing. Just yesterday, this stock came down from its all-time high of 20 per share to its all-time low of 0.91 per share.
It was quite challenging to spot some high-conviction calls to trade this stock since it started its descent from its all-time high in April 2016. The conditions of my 10SMA-MACD combo were met on certain occasions but there was a sense of hesitancy due to a relatively low volume (below the 50% of the stock’s 10-day volume average).
X is still moving below its 10SMA. It’s still under the perfect bearish alignment of its three moving averages. If Xurpas won’t manage to sustain its ascent in price, it’s at risk of going as low as 0.65, which is in confluence with the 61.8% of the Down Fibonacci extension.
It could be a sign of a reversal once Xurpas crosses the line above 1.09-1.10 with a green volume that is above its 10-day volume average.
Note that foreign investors remain as net sellers as of the time of writing this analysis.
Narration of a Few Trades Made on X
I managed to trade this name using some play monies last November 27, 2018 when my 10SMA-MACD combo’s conditions were met with a volume that was above X’s 10-day volume average. During that period, my entry price was near 1.00 per share. My trailing stop loss was hit when the price crossed below the 1.70 level.
My 10SMA-MACD combo’s conditions were met again on February 1, 2019. I had the conviction to test-buy between 1.55 to 1.60. I got stopped out between 2.05 to 2.10 since my trailing stop-loss was hit.
My 10SMA-MACD combo’s conditions were met again last April 8, 2019 but I didn’t have the conviction to do a test-buy since my Average Directional Index (ADX) gave me a signal that X may not register a trend but a range only. I am not attracted to “trade the range” kind of trade setups so I ignored that met condition.
RSI was roughly 10 points away from entering the classical oversold territory. It seems traders think that seeing Xurpas below the 1.00-level is already too cheap to ignore. Apparently, that seems to be the case since X already registered a green candlestick with a volume that is already higher than its 10-day volume average during the first half of trading this morning.
My 10SMA-MACD conditions are still hiding. My other technical indicators are not yet showing some confirmed buy signals.
There are 4 conditions that I also check if I want to pre-empt my 10SMA-MACD combo. Let’s check if all four of them are present.
- last candlestick is green: checked!
- last price is above the VWAP: checked!
- volume is higher than the 50% of the stock’s 10-day volume average: checked!
- the dominant range is closer to the intraday high than the intraday low: checked!
All 4 points are present but I still feel a little bit of hesitation because the distribution of trades and volume on my Trade-Volume Distribution charts is scattered all over with a relatively lengthy bar with the exemption of that price point at 1.04. I can still sense a little of indecision among traders in the first half of trading.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
Most Traded Prices: 1.02, 1.03, 0.93, 0.95, 0.94
Most Voluminous Prices: 1.02, 1.03, 0.98, 0.99, 0.97
Market Participant Analysis
I also see another sign of an indecision among traders due to the relatively balanced buying and selling confidence that I see on my Market Participant analysis.
Trading participants of X with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of May-15-2019 at 12:00PM:
- 8 out of 35 participants or 22.86% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 8 out of 35 participants or 22.86% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.9884
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.9978
Overall Sentiment and Recommendations
I am still bearish on Xurpas despite the appearance of my 4-point criteria in pre-empting my 10SMA-MACD combo due to the signs of indecisions that I saw on my Trade-Volume Distribution analysis and Market Participant analysis. I suggest that you stay on the sidelines for now. Be on a wait-and-see mode. Do a fresh Trade-Volume Distribution analysis once X touches its intraday high of 1.04 again so you can see if there are no more signs of an indecision among traders.
Do you wish to still test-buy on X? If you do, I suggest that you do it within the most traded and most voluminous range for a higher chance of getting your transaction fulfilled. Mark your trailing stop loss.
I have narrated those instances when I managed to trade X so you can examine those signals that triggered the decision for me to trade the name. Find the common denominator. Once you’ve gotten a good feel the strategy that I’m sharing with you, you may then try and execute it on your own. I have other posts in this group where I talked about my 10SMA-MACD combo. Please search the group for my other posts for additional references.
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I hope this helps. If it does, please let me know in the comments Thank you!
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