Hello, traders and investors! We are back in our EquiTalks Episode. It’s Friday, March 8, 2019.
How were your trades, gals and guys? Did you earn? Were you able to trim down some loses today?
This is the third episode of our EquiTalks program. I am going to talk about Cebu Landmasters, Inc. (CLI).
In every EquiTalks episode, I discuss my technical analysis, overall sentiment, and trade setups, whether you already have a position in CLI or you’re just planning to trade this name some other day.
Let’s take a look at the chart of CLI. The immediate resistance I see is near 4.34, while the immediate support is at 3.96. Major resistance is at 4.69. Major support is at 3.70.
CLI closed at 4.26 with an intraday high of 4.29 and an intraday low of 4.20. Today’s closing price is above the 10-day simple moving average.
The volume is a few shares shy of registering above the 10-day volume average. For me, this is relatively low as far as CLI’s volatility is concerned.
While CLI is bullish in the short term, it has to trade preferably above 4.69, so it can gain its bullish position in the long term. CLI has a lot of work to do here.
Currently, it’s only at 4.26 and it has to go above 4.69 or 4.70.
It isn’t completely bullish because I prefer to see the blue line moving below the red line. That’s the kind of alignment you would want to see if you already have CLI.
Again, today’s volume is relatively low even though it’s definitely 50% above its 10-day volume average.
Whenever I see a green candlestick, I prefer to see support coming from the volume. As much as possible, I want the volume to register above its 10-day volume average. In this case, that isn’t what I am seeing.
Moreover, MACD is still moving below the signal line. If CLI closed above 4.30, perhaps there would be a chance for us to see MACD crossing or moving above the signal line.
Let’s see if there will be a continuation of green candlesticks by next week. But, with this kind of volume that CLI exhibited within this week, I am not quite confident to say that all five trading days next week will have green candlesticks.
Perhaps, CLI will continue to move sideways if it will continue registering this kind of flimsy volume. But that could change, especially if it starts registering significant volume worth 3.77 million.
Net Foreign Trade
How are the foreign investors doing on CLI? Are they net sellers or buyers? Basing it from the net foreign histogram, I can say that CLI is on a net foreign selling status year to date.
Risk level wise, CLI has a low-risk level because of its volatility score of 24%.
If this flimsy volume would continue next week, then we might just see another sideways movement similar to this week’s price movement for CLI. So, it’s all about volume now.
The next probable direction of CLI would greatly depend on the size of volume it would register every single day. There isn’t much that we can expect from foreign investors. As we have seen in the past one or two weeks, they did not have any significant participation in trading CLI.
For those of you who have a position in CLI, I am sure you would like to know the range or price points got the biggest volume and the highest number of trades.
Are you guys checking on that? You should.
On the Volume Review tab of FirstMetroSec PRO, CLI closed at 4.26. This is the exact and same price that got the highest volume, at about 64% with only 15 trades.
That explains why I am quite disappointed with the volume of CLI today. By just seeing the number of trades, you can already tell why the volume is relatively low today. More often than not, low trades translate into a low volume.
If you are interested in the name, you watch out for 4.26 within the first 15-30 minutes of trading next week. But if things start at a weak momentum, I would suggest you wait below 4.20.
CLI has a cash dividend worth 0.20 per share with an ex-dividend date of March 21, 2019.
For those who are not sure whether or not they will receive a dividend if they will buy or sell on or before the ex-dividend date, I will give you the answer.
If you will buy before March 21, every single CLI share that you have will be entitled to receive this cash dividend. But if you will buy on of after March 21, those CLI shares are no longer subject to receive the cash dividend.
If you will sell before March 21, your CLI shares will not receive a cash dividend. If you will sell on and after March 21, those CLI shares will still receive the dividend.
My Overall Sentiment on CLI
It’s actually neutral. Based on the data, it’s more likely that it will just move sideways next week unless significant volume would start to sprout on the volume histogram.
Now, if you have a position on CLI, let’s say your average price is lower than 4.26, what should you do then? My advice is that you stick with your trailing stop loss.
It should be calculated based on the current price, which is 4.26. That is if your average is less than 4.26.
What if you bought CLI in November when it was priced at 4.40? Again, you should respect your trailing stop loss. But since your average price is higher than the current price, then I would suggest that you base your trailing stop loss from your average cost or price.
If you don’t have a position on CLI, should you enter a new position next week? My advice is that you should continue monitoring first. It is so because I don’t see a confirmed buy signal yet.
What’s the indicator I use to confirm buy signal? MACD should cross above the signal line. When that happens, the price should be moving above the 10-day simple moving average.
Right now, the price is moving. However, MACD is still busy walking below the signal line. We want to see the blue line moving above the red line.
Until that happens, then I would still keep my advice for you to continue monitoring CLI.
Long-Term Investing and Short-Term Trading Advice
If you are into long-term investing on CLI, I would suggest that you check on your buy case. Your buy case is a list of reasons why you think it’s worthy to have CLI in the long run.
For me, my buy case should be strongly based on fundamentals when it comes to long-term investing. As long as my buy case is 80% true or intact, then I’m going to continue topping up my position on that stock.
Once it has become less than 80% true, then I would consider selling in tranches if I cannot stomach selling everything at once.
If you are into short-term trading, please do not use the “averaging down” strategy just for the sake of seeing your average price going down. Stick with your trailing stop loss and if you don’t have a position on CLI yet, again, continue monitoring.
I do hope you have learned something from the third episode of EquiTalks for today. You will find the video on our YouTube channel. You can also find us on SoundCloud if you would like to listen while on your way to the office or while you’re driving. You can listen to our podcast.
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