The Bank of the Philippine Islands closed on June 10, 2019, Monday, at 81.85. It’s been almost a year and a half that it has been moving inside the downtrend channel since it registered its all-time high in the first quarter of 2018.
Even though BPI is already moving above the 10SMA, it needs to break above the resistance at 85.70, preferably with support coming from the foreign investors, to break its trend inside the downtrend channel. Support is near 77.20. However, foreign investors remain as net sellers on BPI for 2019 year to date.
If you’ve been following my other posts, you know that I treat it as a buy signal when the price moves above the 10SMA and the MACD is above the signal line. Although you can still make some money trading the ups and downs (trading ranges) of a stock in a downtrend channel, I suggest that you check first if it’s worth your while. You won’t like BPI if your bias is on upward-trending stocks.
The dominance of the bears is still felt. The negative DMI is still hovering the positive DMI. I see no significant sign of a bullish convergence between the positive and the negative DMI. BPI might just continue to trade the range inside the downtrend channel I drew on the daily chart.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
BPI closed below its volume weighted average price of 81.89 today. The most voluminous range is also closer to the intraday low than the intraday high. This means that the descent in price is more likely to continue.
Most Traded Prices: 82.2, 82, 82.15, 81.85, 81.9
Most Voluminous Prices: 81.85, 81.9, 82, 82.2, 81.95
Market Sentiment Analysis
I am getting a bullish sentiment from my Market Sentiment Analyzer, however. But knowing that BPI is still inside the downtrend channel, this bullishness is not convincing enough to think that BPI is already out of the woods. I would say that BPI might just continue to trade the range. But if this bullishness of my Market Sentiment Analyzer will emit the same bullish sentiment once the price breaks above 84, I might think that the ascent in price would be more likely to continue then.
Trading participants of BPI with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Jun-10-2019 at 03:30PM:
- 8 out of 38 participants or 21.05% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 14 out of 38 participants or 36.84% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 81.9430
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 82.0319
Overall Sentiment and Recommendations
I remain bearish on BPI in the long-term. Technically, it is bullish in the short-term as far as the conditions of my 10SMA-MACD combo are concerned but my conviction to enter a new position on BPI for short-term trading is not that high yet. For one, the four criteria that I always check before I enter a new position in any stock are all absent. What are those 4 criteria? I mentioned them in my other posts on this website. Please read my other articles on this website. You can use the search box to find those criteria.
If you have a high-risk tolerance and you strictly implement a trailing stop loss system in all your trades, you can do a test-buy within the dominant range I mentioned above.
If you’re a new trader, I do not recommend entering a new position on BPI for now.
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